However, this does not mean that the rainfall, streamflow, and storm surge events are probabilistically independent of each other. Unsurprisingly, the scenarios show vulnerable ASEAN countries will be impacted the most in the region. The impact on workability will be significant for these countries due to their high percentage of work taking place in outdoor and labor-intensive sectors. Global Lead Sustainability & Market Development, (click to show list of locations and regional sites), Read More about: Sustainability Report 2021, The Economics of Climate Change: Impacts for Asia, The cost of climate change will have significant impact to the global economy, Scenarios by the Swiss Re Institute quantifies the impacts of no action, How insurance can help to minimise loss and de-risk. See technical appendix for further details. For other systems, Asia might be less exposed to climate risks than the world, although risks in these areas are still expected to increase by 2050. The effects of climate change are on the increase and no part of the world is immune. SHARM EL SHEIKH, EGYPT (November 7, 2022) - Today, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation echoed African leaders' calls for countries to rapidly scale-up finance for climate adaptation and pledged to invest $1.4 billion to help smallholder farmers address the immediate and long-term impacts of climate change. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand would lose economic output totaling more than seven times their 2019 GDP by 2050. Asian countries are home to some of the worlds largest populations of economically disadvantaged people, many of whom are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. 1. However, risks to infrastructure and supply chains will increase due to more frequent extreme precipitation events and typhoons in many areas; this is particularly important given Chinas role in regional and global supply chains. For a full discussion of our choice of RCP 8.5 and details of our methodology, see the technical appendix of our global report, Climate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts, McKinsey Global Institute, January 2020. Impacts of climate change - World Health Organization In south and Southeast Asia, increased rates of illness and death from diarrhea are likely to increase. China is climatically heterogeneous due to its location on a wide range of latitudes. Encouragingly, by early 2021, countries representing more than 65% of global carbon-dioxide emissions and more than 70% of the world economy had pledged ambitious commitments to become carbon neutral. Data limitations affect our ability to assess infrastructure effects regionally. How does climate change affect Asia and the Pacific and its people? The index uses a ranking system based on the expected economic outcomes, vulnerability to extreme weather risks and also factors in existing adaptive readiness. Increased cyclonic activity and sea-level rise multiply the risk of catastrophic flooding. McKinsey Global Energy Perspective 2019: Reference case, McKinsey Energy Insights, 2019; Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, 2015; FAOSTAT, FAO, 2015. This region has undergone a 3.3 degree mean annual growth in temperature with a min-max range as 2.74.7 degrees, according to IPCC figures. The beauty of the blue planet is that it is self-restoring and self-healing. Lyla Mehta, D Parthasarathy and Shibaji Bose, is affecting economies, industries and global issues, with our crowdsourced digital platform to deliver impact at scale. Things that we depend upon and value water, energy, transportation, wildlife, agriculture, ecosystems, and human health are experiencing . By 2050, their average temperatures are projected to rise by two to four degrees Celsius, and they could face much higher probabilities of lethal heat waves. The effects of climate change will be felt mostly in countries where health systems are weak, and the capacity to adapt and respond to climate change are low.Some places will experience changes such as increasing intensity of cyclones, while others may experience longer-term changes, such as heat waves, drought and sea level rise. We write. As we found in our micro analysis, selected regions in Asia are extremely exposed to intensifying climate risks. We highlight adaptation and mitigation strategies for policy makers and business leaders in the region to consider. Permafrost is projected to decrease 20-90% by 2100 in North Asia and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which will have substantial impacts to erosion . But with rising investment in green energy and carbon capture, China is set to quickly close any adaption capability shortfall. This threshold was chosen because the commonly defined heat threshold for human survivability is 35C wet-bulb, and large cities with significant urban heat island effects could push 34C wet-bulb heat waves over the 35C threshold. One thing is clear: We need to cut our emissions in half by 2030 and be carbon neutral by 2050. The aerosol is absorbed, resulting in atmospheric heating. Typhoon and extreme precipitation risk could also increase in some parts of Japan and South Korea. Climate change impacts stand to slash up to 9% off the . Climate change will also worsen a range of risks to the Great Lakes. 6 Like Advanced Asia, China is expected to be an agricultural net beneficiary of climate change in the near term, with increasing statistically expected yields and volatility skewed toward positive outcomes. Many countries across the region are experiencing unusually hot temperatures. However, some of the colder countries of the region, like Nepal, will not be sharply affected by rising temperatures. Climate change is directly linked to coral bleaching, putting biodiversity and marine ecosystems at risk. Southeast Asia faces more severe effects of climate change - CNBC Under RCP 4.5, 2.3 degrees Celsius warming would be reached in the year 2080. Enough resources are not available in flood-prone areas, which is an increasing concern for the areas which may get submerged. The government of Andhra Pradesh, for instance, is creating a Heat Wave Action Plan. Nature-based solutions needed to enhance climate resilience in The dollar impact is calculated by multiplying the share of hours lost in outdoor sectors with GDP in these sectors (this assumes that consensus projections do not factor in losses to GDP from climate change). Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Thomas F. Stocker et al., eds., New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2014. Both derive from physical capital impacts. We also provide insurance solutions to protect natural assets and enable more nature-based solutions, as nature is a highly effective climate risk mitigator. As a result, food webs are altered and fish stocks collapse, putting millions of lives and jobs at risk. The biggest challenge, however, would be the transition to low-carbon farming practices from current practices, because farming supports the lives and livelihoods of billions of people in the region, and any disruptions would be widely felt. In addition to the material impact on our landscape and biodiversity, climate change is of increasing concern to regulators, businesses, investors and insurers. Not just day temperature, night temperatures have also increased. Ongoing sea level rises have already submerged several low-lying islands, hence displacing thousands of people. Himalayan Glaciers are retreating due to a sudden increase in temperature on the Tibetan Plateau. The most impacted regions include emerging Asia, the engine of growth for the global economy, and oil producing countries. It has had observable effects on the environment across the globe, like shrinking of glaciers, accelerated sea-level rise, and intense heat waves. Climate change in South Asia is having significant impacts already which are expected to intensify as global temperatures rise due to climate change. (Diarrhea now causes about 4% of all deaths, globally, each year; the percentage is higher in Asia and Africa.) All crop modeling has been done under the assumption that historic increases in CO. Tokyo is vulnerable to all three sources of flooding: fluvial, pluvial, and coastal. In this scenario, 800 million people stand to be at risk, along with drastically diminishing living conditions. Unmitigated, climate change will lead to large economic losses across the globe. Although abatement costs are generalized global costs from our analysis and not specific to Indonesia, we believe they provide a useful guide for each measure. In many ways, Asia stands out as being more exposed to physical climate risk than other parts of the world in the absence of adaptation and mitigation (Exhibit 2). Shifting rainfall patterns and higher temperatures affect agricultural productivity. Thus when addressing air pollution, we also discuss a critical solution to climate change. We used backward multipliers from input-output tables to include knock-on effects. Climate change is a current uproar all over the world. Adapting to Climate Change Across East Asia and the Pacific - Our Impact 3 A two metre sea level rise could displace over 180 million people, mostly across Asia. The IPCCs sixth assessment report is the latest in a series of reports that assess the science of climate change, its impacts and risks. Secondly, the melting of ice sheets and glaciers due to elevated temperatures also adds water to the worlds seas and oceans. Unpredictable weather patterns can lead to failing crops, spiking food prices, and spreading diseases that threaten to wipe out decades of development gains. Projections based on RCP 8.5 CMIP 5 multimodel ensemble. Furthermore, about half of global investment in power by 2040 is expected to occur in Asia. 2022 United Nations Development Programme. Prevailing westerlies carry aerosols along the southern borders of the steep-faced Tibetan Plateau to eastern India and the Bay of Bengal. 1Flooded area considered for grids with depth greater than 0.01. For example, our Marine business is helping decarbonise the supply chain by leading the creation of an industry alliance around reducing carbon emission for shipping as an expansion of the Poseidon Principles. Its direct effect is in the form of death and injury from the various manifestations of heat stress, storm and surges, landslide and erosion, drowning from flood; vector, vehicle (water, air, vermin and insects) and food borne diseases; malnutrition due to falling agricultural yield . The key uncertainties include the emissions pathway and pace of warming, climate model accuracy and natural variability, the magnitude of direct and indirect socioeconomic impacts, and the socioeconomic response. This is because unsustainable agricultural practices have significantly contributed to deforestation. TPH aims to Be the change we want to see in the world. We are Dancers, we are Actors. It also includes sea level rise, changes in weather patterns like drought and flooding, and much more. One project to foster resilience helped farmers develop new maize varieties better adapted to drought and pests. The 1-in-100-year rainfall, streamflow, and storm surge values were calculated independently from each other using various data sources. Rising seas threaten to intensify floods and storms and degrade land through increased salination. Our analysis of Asias mitigation opportunities and challenges was built on four country- and sector-level decarbonization case studies: coal in India, steel in China, agriculture and deforestation in Indonesia, and transportation in Japan. Key takeaways include the following: Rising temperatures and lethal heat waves could affect livability and effective working hours in major Asian economies and cause regressive impacts within countries. The first factor is the thermal expansion of water, where the increasing temperature warms the water bodies, resulting in their expansion. Second, new sources of energy, especially bioenergy and hydrogen, as well as investment in carbon capture, utilization, and storage would also play a key role. McKinsey Global Energy Perspective 2020: Reference case, McKinsey Energy Insights, 2020. Climate change in Asia and the Pacific. What's at stake? Collectively, these 16 countries make up 54% of global population and one-third of global GDP. We measure the impact of climate change based on the extent to which it could affect human beings, human-made physical assets, and the natural world. A two metre sea level rise could displace over 180 million people, mostly across Asia. We have also improved our tracking of ship owners scrapping activities to prevent granting insurance cover to unsustainable practices and encourage a more circular economy. These include the need for a significant capacity increase in electricity from renewables, the availability of green hydrogen on an industrial scale, changes in raw materials, new production technology, demand for hydrogen-based steel, and financing and access to capital. West Asia is among the regions worst affected by climate change. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology has been advising the government in predicting and mitigating heat waves. We speak. In Thailand, Swiss Re has supported farmers for a number of years with the Thai Rice Insurance Scheme, which compensates farmers for losses from weather events. Therefore, in order to avoid underestimating flood risk, all three flood sources were modeled together to provide a realistic estimate of the 1-in-100-year flood event. The case for urgent climate action is clear. In our Japan case study, we found that the countrys transportation sector could achieve an annual reduction of about 70 MtCO2 by 2030 compared to 2016 by improving the fuel efficiency of ICEs, raising BEV penetration in most commercial vehicle segments, and decreasing the distance driven on the road through greater use of public transport and ride sharing for example. In an ominous study of all the eight South-Asian countries, the World Bank warned about steadily rising average annual temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. At the same time, key economies in the region, such as China and Japan, are leading the world in technologies, from electric vehicles to renewable energy, that are necessary to adapt to and mitigate climate change. Objective: To review the scientific evidence about the impact of climate change and socio-environmental factors on dengue transmission, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. Indonesia: Share of economic sectors in the gross domestic product (GDP) from 2008 to 2018, Statista, 2020; Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate), World Bank, 2019. According to the report, launched yesterday for Bangladesh at a Dhaka hotel, over 750 million people in South Asia are affected by floods, droughts, and climatic hazards caused by climate change. From 1950 to 2010, for example, western Afghanistan and southwestern Pakistan have experienced 1 degree Celsius to 3 degrees rise in mercury levels. Air pollution due to carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases raises the global temperature. Climate change impact: 14.8 million to be at risk of hunger by 2030 In India, we partnered with Tata AIG General Insurance to provide India's first parametric insurance protection in Nagaland state, which is susceptible to damage from heavy rainfall. The health impacts of climate change in Asia-Pacific 1. In this context the compound flood event is defined as the flood extent caused by the 1-in-100-year flood rainfall, streamflow, and storm surge events occurring simultaneously. Climate change in Asia and the Pacific. What's at stake? Through this global network, McKinsey's Energy Insights team is able to incorporate a diverse set of views into one consensus reference case. Decisive steps should be taken to adopt new mindsets and acquire the necessary tools and capabilities to model and diagnose climate risk that is continuously changing, is spatial (manifested locally), is systemic, and can lead to nonlinear impacts that are regressive. This could be done in a number of ways. To simulate the worst-case scenario, all three flood sources were used as inputs to model the 24-hour compound flood event. This is due to the significant risks and impacts to both advanced and emerging markets. 2019 is on track to become the hottest year on record. Governments can leverage loans or guarantees to encourage private-sector investment or mechanisms, such as legislation, to either raise additional adaptation finance or encourage private-sector involvement. This assessment allows us to understand the full magnitude of the problem and the scale of potential response. 3 Heat waves, floods, and droughts affect every aspect of life, from nutrition and health, to safety and income. This reduction in emissions would help Japan meet its Paris Agreement target in 2030. With increased urbanisation, adapting communities to physical risks is critical. In Indonesia, for example, the agricultural sector accounts for 13 percent of national GDP and 30 percent of total employment. Particular health vulnerabilities of women and girls to climate change impacts . Here are some glaring numbers that show the impacts of climate change in Asia and the Pacific. The industrial sector is the largest greenhouse gas emitter in Asia, accounting for more than 35 percent of the regions annual CO2 emissions. Incentives for electric vehicles or public transport can help to curb the impact of the transportation sector. About 2 percent ($40 billion per year) is expected to be applied to climate risk adaptation. Pakistan and India have already seen blistering temperatures above 50C this year. This article is a . All crop modeling has been done under the assumption that historic increases in CO2 fertilization continue to increase with atmospheric CO2 content. The high temperatures will impact 23 states in 2020, up from 9 in 2015 and 19 in 2018. Relying more on outdoor work and natural capital, they are subject to climates closer to physical thresholds that affect human beings ability to work outdoors. Strategies to decarbonize in the transportation sector include improving the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, EV and FCV penetration in multiple vehicle types, and decreasing the distance driven by road transportation (for example, with a shift to public transportation and ride sharing). 13 PDF Impact of Climate Change on Food Crop Productivity, Food Prices and The analyses identified hot spots where the deterioration is expected to be most severe. H. Damon Matthews et al., "Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets, and the implications for climate mitigation targets, Environmental Research Letters, January 2018, Volume 13, Number 1; H. Damon Matthews and Ken Caldeira, "Stabilizing climate requires near zero emissions, Geophysical Research Letters, February 2008, Volume 35, Issue 3; and Myles R. Allen et al., "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne," Nature, April 2009, Volume 458, Issue 7242. While Asia-Pacifics poorer communities contribute the least to greenhouse gas emissions, they are the ones feeling the consequences of climate change the most. These countries could see extreme increases in heat and humidity, which may significantly affect workability and livability. The world is currently not doing enough to help poorer nations withstand the effects of global warming, the United Nations said . Many concrete steps can be taken to address the threat of climate change. Among other things the decline in crop yields in the region has been highlighted as a major impact of GCC. Risks arise as a result of long causal chains. Ocean acidification and coral bleaching are a result of climate change that threatens the normality of millions of lives across Asia and the Pacific. Climate change's dire impact on Egypt's archaeological treasures Advanced Asia consists of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. 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